The A+ Breakout Scorecard
The whole course as one pre-trade pass. Two of these are vetoes rather than points — no runway and no availability end the trade regardless of everything else.
Score the setup — tick what is genuinely true
What a score is for, honestly. We reconstructed a compression-quality score and tested it against 489 breakout attempts across 490 SPY sessions. It did not separate outcomes: failure rates ran 71 to 77 percent across score buckets, against 75 percent for the sample as a whole. So a scorecard is a way to make the same decision the same way every time, and to force the actions into the right order — arm, trigger, harvest, protect, participate. It is not a probability estimate, and a high score is not a reason to size up. Costs are not included in any figure quoted here.