The guess entry always shows the prettier reward-to-risk ratio. That is the trap. Expectancy — R:R multiplied by how often it actually works — is what compounds your account. Put your two candidate entries side by side and see which one the math prefers.
Expectancy = (win rate × R:R) − (loss rate × 1), expressed in R — multiples of the risk you took. Win rates are your honest estimate from your own logged trades, not a hope. The point is not that confirmation always wins; it is that R:R alone never tells you which entry is better.