FOMC Scenario Map
The move is the SURPRISE, not the number
Price reacts to the outcome
relative to what was priced in
. Pick what the market expected, then what the Fed actually did:
Market expected
A hold
rates unchanged (base case)
A cut
easing priced in
Fed actually delivered
Cut / dovish hold
easier than tone suggested
Hold, neutral tone
as expected
Hawkish hold
hold, but signals hikes
Hike
tighter than expected