Scaling out is not timidity — it is how you get paid by an outcome you cannot predict. Set the campaign and compare taking the impulse against holding everything, using the measured outcomes of 489 real compression breakouts.
4
the plan needs at least 2 to exist
dollars lost if the stop hits
0.25W
how far the impulse must run before you take the first tranche
Plan
Outcome
How often
This plan
Hold everything
Difference
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Where the numbers come from. 489 breakout attempts out of a compressed range across 490 SPY 1-minute sessions. A breakout is counted as failed when price closes back inside the range on two consecutive bars — 75% of attempts did. Median best-price-reached within 10 minutes was 0.72 range widths when the breakout held and 0.24 when it failed; the median result at +30 minutes was +0.81W held and −0.34W failed. Payoffs below are computed from those medians with the stop assumed at one risk unit, so they show the shape of each plan rather than a promise — your own instrument, range width and fills will move every number.