Probability, Not Prediction
You don't need to be right — just positive
Trading is not fortune-telling. Set an honest win rate and your reward-to-risk, and watch how often you are allowed to be wrong and still make money:
Win rate45%
Reward : Risk2R
—
expectancy per trade
Expectancy = (win% × reward) − (loss% × risk), in units of R. Positive over many trades is the whole job. Any single trade is noise.