Oyamori Daily Brief: OPEN Edition | 2026-09-11 09:45 ET

Validity Window: Valid until 11:30 ET.

765.06 (+0.96%)
SPY
715.48 (+0.96%)
QQQ
290.12 (+0.85%)
IWM
16.04
VIX

1. Opening Range (OR) Verdict (09:30 - 09:45 ET)

Analysis of the first 15 minutes of RTH to determine immediate liquidity bias.

Symbol OR High OR Low Status Verdict
SPY 765.99 764.22 Inside NO TREND YET
QQQ 716.18 713.93 Inside NO TREND YET
IWM 291.44 290.12 At Low NO TREND YET
AAPL 334.27 326.30 Inside NO TREND YET
META 662.45 648.51 Break High BULLISH BIAS
⚠️ WARNING
RTH Trend Trigger: SPY needs to close a 5m bar > 765.99 or < 764.22 to confirm direction. Current state is chop/distribution within the OR.

2. Intraday Technical Intelligence

VWAP & Flow Report

  • SPY: Price 765.06 [tradier·09:45 ET] vs VWAP 765.23 [synth·09:44 ET]. Status: Loss (Below VWAP). Buy% 54.2% [synth·09:44 ET].
  • QQQ: Price 715.48 [tradier·09:45 ET] vs VWAP 715.11 [synth·09:45 ET]. Status: Hold (Above VWAP). Buy% 50.1% [synth·09:45 ET].
  • AAPL: Price 333.07 [tradier·09:45 ET] vs VWAP 331.52 [synth·09:45 ET]. Status: Hold (Above VWAP). RVOL 2.97 [synth·09:45 ET] indicates extreme institutional participation.
  • ADBE: Price 242.52 [tradier·09:45 ET] vs VWAP 245.31 [synth·09:45 ET]. Status: Loss (Below VWAP). RVOL 3.73 [synth·09:45 ET] suggests heavy sell-side pressure.

Options Market Positioning

  • SPY: Expected Move $\pm$ 2.95 [tradier·09:48 ET]. PCR (Vol) 1.01 / PCR (OI) 1.7 [tradier·09:48 ET]. High Put OI at 755.0 (54.3k) and 760.0 (49.2k) acting as primary floors.
  • QQQ: Expected Move $\pm$ 3.81 [tradier·09:48 ET]. Call Wall at 715.0 [tradier·09:48 ET] creates immediate overhead resistance.
  • META: PCR (Vol) 0.33 [tradier·09:48 ET] and PCR (AV Full-chain) 0.35 [av·09:48 ET]. Extreme bullish call skew.

3. Execution Framework (State-Machine)

Focus: SPY (Index Proxy)

  • Context: Gap up but trading inside OR and slightly below VWAP. Market is in a "Wait-and-See" phase after an initial push.
  • State: WAIT $\rightarrow$ READY when:
    • Bull Case: Close above 765.99 (OR High) AND Price > 765.23 (VWAP).
    • Bear Case: Close below 764.22 (OR Low) AND Price < 765.23 (VWAP).

SPY 5m RTH

Focus: META (High Conviction Momentum)

  • Context: Strong break of OR High (662.45) with aggressive call flow.
  • State: READY
  • Trigger: Re-test of VWAP 658.03 [synth·09:45 ET] or 5m dip to OR High.
  • Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or hammer on 5m timeframe near 658-662 zone.
  • Invalidation: Close below 648.51 [synth·09:45 ET] (OR Low).
  • Risk: Low-Medium (Strong momentum, but high IV).
  • Exit Logic: Target Call Wall 665.0 [tradier·09:48 ET] or SR Level 671.02 [analysis·09:49 ET].

4. Summary Trend Call

Asset Direction Conviction Validity Rationale
SPY NEUTRAL High 11:30 ET Inside OR, below VWAP. No trigger.
QQQ NEUTRAL Medium 11:30 ET Pinning near Call Wall 715.0.
META BULLISH Medium 11:30 ET OR High Break + Low PCR (0.33).
🚨 DANGER
No-Trade Condition: If SPY remains between 764.22 and 765.99, avoid all index-correlated directionals. This is a "chop zone" characterized by low-conviction absorption.
Technical Appendix
  • RVOL Analysis: AAPL (2.97) and ADBE (3.73) are the primary volatility drivers this morning.
  • Liquidity Lens: SPY Put Wall at 755-760 is heavy, suggesting a strong institutional floor if the OR Low is breached.
  • Breadth: Mixed. Tech (QQQ) is fighting the 715.0 wall, while Small Caps (IWM) are struggling at the bottom of their OR.