MARKET REGIME

US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-09-07
→ Prediction
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+8.4%
Defensive
+8.3%
Spread +0.2pp  ·  threshold −5 to +10pp  ·  XLP↔XLK -0.389 Defensives decoupling
⚡ Risk-ON ⚖ Mixed 🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
XLE Energy
+42.2%
💻 XLK Technology
+30.1%
⚗️ XLB Materials
+14.6%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+11.5%
🏥 XLV Healthcare
+11.2%
🏢 XLRE Real Estate
+10.5%
🛒 XLP Cons. Staples
+10.2%
🏦 XLF Financials
+6.7%
💡 XLU Utilities
+1.1%
🛍 XLY Cons. Discretionary
-2.5%
📡 XLC Comm. Services
-3.6%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 4.77%
2Y Yield 4.34%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.43%
Fed Funds Rate 3.63%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.389 Defensives hiding
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
XLY XLF XLP XLU XLI XLC XLE XLB XLK XLV XLRE
XLY 1.00 0.51 0.18 0.03 0.49 0.67 -0.36 0.47 0.45 0.27 0.30
XLF 0.51 1.00 0.10 0.02 0.45 0.50 -0.19 0.37 0.19 0.33 0.38
XLP 0.18 0.10 1.00 0.39 0.07 0.25 0.09 0.31 -0.39 0.49 0.52
XLU 0.03 0.02 0.39 1.00 0.30 0.00 0.04 0.31 -0.11 0.23 0.58
XLI 0.49 0.45 0.07 0.30 1.00 0.25 -0.26 0.64 0.53 0.25 0.36
XLC 0.67 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25 1.00 -0.23 0.29 0.14 0.29 0.36
XLE -0.36 -0.19 0.09 0.04 -0.26 -0.23 1.00 -0.11 -0.27 -0.07 -0.09
XLB 0.47 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.64 0.29 -0.11 1.00 0.30 0.35 0.41
XLK 0.45 0.19 -0.39 -0.11 0.53 0.14 -0.27 0.30 1.00 -0.16 -0.10
XLV 0.27 0.33 0.49 0.23 0.25 0.29 -0.07 0.35 -0.16 1.00 0.48
XLRE 0.30 0.38 0.52 0.58 0.36 0.36 -0.09 0.41 -0.10 0.48 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.17) Tightest pair: XLC (0.673)