MARKET REGIME

US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-10-22
→ Prediction
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
Growth
+6.8%
Defensive
+9.2%
Spread -2.4pp  ·  threshold −5 to +10pp  ·  XLP↔XLK -0.405 Defensives decoupling
⚡ Risk-ON ⚖ Mixed 🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
⚡ XLE Energy
+52.3%
💻 XLK Technology
+31.1%
🏥 XLV Healthcare
+16.5%
🛒 XLP Cons. Staples
+14.3%
⚗️ XLB Materials
+12.7%
🏭 XLI Industrials
+7.4%
🏢 XLRE Real Estate
+6.6%
🏦 XLF Financials
+3.3%
💡 XLU Utilities
-0.7%
🛍 XLY Cons. Discretionary
-1.8%
📡 XLC Comm. Services
-5.9%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield 5.12%
2Y Yield 4.79%
2Y–10Y Spread -0.33%
Fed Funds Rate 3.75%
Fear Signal XLP↔XLK -0.405 Defensives hiding
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
XLB XLU XLV XLF XLE XLK XLC XLI XLP XLRE XLY
XLB 1.00 0.31 0.34 0.37 -0.08 0.29 0.26 0.63 0.32 0.43 0.47
XLU 0.31 1.00 0.20 0.06 0.05 -0.09 -0.02 0.32 0.37 0.58 0.07
XLV 0.34 0.20 1.00 0.33 -0.11 -0.17 0.26 0.21 0.49 0.46 0.27
XLF 0.37 0.06 0.33 1.00 -0.14 0.17 0.47 0.45 0.12 0.41 0.50
XLE -0.08 0.05 -0.11 -0.14 1.00 -0.27 -0.23 -0.23 0.10 -0.07 -0.36
XLK 0.29 -0.09 -0.17 0.17 -0.27 1.00 0.15 0.52 -0.40 -0.08 0.45
XLC 0.26 -0.02 0.26 0.47 -0.23 0.15 1.00 0.22 0.23 0.35 0.63
XLI 0.63 0.32 0.21 0.45 -0.23 0.52 0.22 1.00 0.08 0.38 0.49
XLP 0.32 0.37 0.49 0.12 0.10 -0.40 0.23 0.08 1.00 0.50 0.18
XLRE 0.43 0.58 0.46 0.41 -0.07 -0.08 0.35 0.38 0.50 1.00 0.33
XLY 0.47 0.07 0.27 0.50 -0.36 0.45 0.63 0.49 0.18 0.33 1.00
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.165) Tightest pair: XLI (0.635)