MARKET REGIME
US Equity · NASDAQ Sectors · Updated 2026-09-07
⚖ Mixed
Growth vs Defensive spread
⚡ Risk-ON
⚖ Mixed
🛡 Risk-OFF
SECTOR ROTATION — YTD 2026
⚡
XLE
Energy
+42.2%
💻
XLK
Technology
+30.1%
⚗️
XLB
Materials
+14.6%
🏭
XLI
Industrials
+11.5%
🏥
XLV
Healthcare
+11.2%
🏢
XLRE
Real Estate
+10.5%
🛒
XLP
Cons. Staples
+10.2%
🏦
XLF
Financials
+6.7%
💡
XLU
Utilities
+1.1%
🛍
XLY
Cons. Discretionary
-2.5%
📡
XLC
Comm. Services
-3.6%
GROWTH: XLK XLI XLY XLC XLF
DEFENSIVE: XLP XLU XLV XLRE
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
10Y Yield
4.77%
2Y Yield
4.34%
2Y–10Y Spread
-0.43%
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Fear Signal
XLP↔XLK -0.389 Defensives hiding
AI REGIME READ
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Generating regime analysis…
SECTOR CORRELATION MATRIX — YTD 2026
| XLY | XLF | XLP | XLU | XLI | XLC | XLE | XLB | XLK | XLV | XLRE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLY | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 0.67 | -0.36 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| XLF | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.50 | -0.19 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| XLP | 0.18 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.31 | -0.39 | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| XLU | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.31 | -0.11 | 0.23 | 0.58 |
| XLI | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.25 | -0.26 | 0.64 | 0.53 | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| XLC | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | -0.23 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| XLE | -0.36 | -0.19 | 0.09 | 0.04 | -0.26 | -0.23 | 1.00 | -0.11 | -0.27 | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| XLB | 0.47 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 0.29 | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| XLK | 0.45 | 0.19 | -0.39 | -0.11 | 0.53 | 0.14 | -0.27 | 0.30 | 1.00 | -0.16 | -0.10 |
| XLV | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.29 | -0.07 | 0.35 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 0.48 |
| XLRE | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.36 | 0.36 | -0.09 | 0.41 | -0.10 | 0.48 | 1.00 |
Best diversifier: XLE (avg corr 0.17)
Tightest pair: XLC (0.673)